Page 14 - ELG2009 Sep Issue 472

MARKET ANALYSIS .

Why international schools will weather the Covid storm Centres of Excellence

Matt Salusbury examines the potential long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on
international schools

nternational schools are preparing to re-
open in September, many with reduced
class sizes or staggered shifts, though U UKK
Iexact arrangements vary depending on DENLA BRITISH SCHOOL
the country.
In Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, for
example, the authorities have delegated to
schools and parents the decision on whether
to fully reopen, run classes in staggered shifts
or continue online learning. Neighbouring L Laanngguuaaggee
Oman, by contrast, has yet to formally make
a decision on how schools will operate.
But will schools recover in the medium
term?
A recent report by ISC Research, In the
light of COVID-19, concludes they will, not
least because of the resilience built into a C Ceennttrree
sector that’s weathered other crises.
While expatriate families may leave a Denla British School in Bangkok has re-opened with Covid-19 safety measures in place
country en masse, history shows there’s an
ever-increasing demand from wealthier local With the slump in oil and gas prices in But the schools recovered, aided by a
families for a “Western” international school 2014, for example, many expatriates in the liberalisation of work visas. In mega-cities
education, as the experience of 2008 Middle East and South East Asia were Tokyo, Yokohama and Osaka, more Japanese
financial crash shows. repatriated. International schools were once families are now sending their children to
International schools began as schools for again able to fill vacancies from local families. international schools. Japan had 234 R Raannkkiinnggss
the children of expatriate families, many of Some expatriates stayed, but with benefits international schools with a total enrolment
whom had generous employee relocation packages cut, so they had to pay their own of 51,000 in 2010, now it has 304 schools
packages, including school fees. Expatriate fees. Many of these moved their children with 74,000 students.
families were seeking an education in their from the expensive “premium” end of the It’s too early to fully assess the impact of
own language and a curriculum compatible the novel coronavirus. Families may switch
with their home country. to more long-term use of online education.
By 2008, there was already a shortage of While expatriate Teachers may be more reluctant to travel, 2 2002200--2211
international school places in Qatar, families may leave a leading to a possible staff shortage.
Switzerland and Hong Kong, among others, The experience of international schools in
as “wealthier local populations” enrolled country en masse, Thailand may serve as an example. The
their children in international schools in South-East Asian country has 250
ever-greater numbers. history shows international schools offering American,
Although many expatriates returned home British, Singaporean curricula, among
as a result of the financial crisis, “relatively there’s an ever- others. They employ 9,000 teaching staff and
few international schools suffered loss of increasing demand enrol 84,000 students, according to another
enrolment,” according to the report. Local ISC Research report from November. And it
families had been on waiting lists for places from wealthier local is the local market that predominates.
and so these were quickly filled. Unlike Denla British School in Nonthaburi, for
expats, local parents, particularly in Asia, families for a example has a British curriculum, but
tend to withdraw their children from “Western” enrolment is 80 per cent Thai. And it has
international schools only as a last resort. had its share of problems during the
Some schools that are heavily dependent international school pandemic.
on expatriate families for enrolments (China Denla board director Temyos Pandejpong
and the United Arab Emirates, for example,) education… told South China Morning Post the school
downsized during the recession, but even had to cut fees by 30 per cent during the
these were able to make up lost business with market more affordable schools. As a result, pandemic, and enrolments were down 40 per
enrolments from local families. the demographic of some Middle Eastern cent. They also faced a “looming global
Post-2008, new international schools international schools shifted towards families recession” and travel restrictions, with
continued to open worldwide, albeit at a from South East Asia. Competition became expatriates who’d enrolled their children in
slower rate. ISC Research figures for the tougher, and accreditation became more the expectation of moving to Thailand
global market show that in 2000 there were important. finding they couldn’t take up their positions.
2,584 international schools, with just under a Another example cited in the report, is the Thailand’s international schools are
million enrolments worldwide. By 2010 there 2011 Fukushima disaster. Following the optimistic, however. Chinese investors are
were 6,247 such schools with just over 3 nuclear accident, electricity generation failed looking to invest in the sector, real estate
million enrolments. By 2020, school numbers and Japan’s industrial production and ports investors are seeking plots of land on which
were at around 11,000, with enrolments over were closed for an extended period. to build international schools and the LOXDALE ENGLISH CENTRE
5.8 million. International schools were impacted and as a schools are recruiting more staff. The sector,
And the growth has continued despite result fees were lowered for the next two years it seems, still has enough resilience to
further shocks to the sector. in response to “market supply and demand.” survive.

14 September 2020