Though it seems to have come and gone so quickly, 2024 is beginning to wrap itself up in a, perhaps not-so-neat, little bow.
The sector has experienced various highs and lows throughout the year, kicking off with two tribunal wins for British teachers, peaking with a strike in Taiwan, and fading out to the tune of Americans seeking employment abroad, post-election.
A common thread this year has been continuous policy changes in the UK, Australia and Canada, affecting the prospects of many international students from around the world.
In January, Canada proceeded with a cap on study permits, meaning a potential 35% loss in students compared to 2023. Later in the year, they announced a different cap, this time on student working hours.
But they weren’t quite finished; in October, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced further reductions to study permits in 2025. This is all despite analysis that found international students contributed $31 billion to Canada’s economy in 2022, and could be as much as $40 billion in 2023.
Meanwhile, Australia decided to cut down on ‘high risk’ student visas and increased their financial capacity requirements. In August, perhaps following in Canada’s footsteps, they also announced a potential cap on new international student commencements for 2025, though the Bill did not pass in Senate.
Conversely, in the UK, it was less what the government did do, and more what they didn’t do.
May saw the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) publish a rapid review into the Graduate visa route, after then-Home Secretary James Cleverly expressed a desire to reduce net migration and ‘crackdown on those who seek to take advantage of our hospitality’.
At first, despite the MAC finding ‘no evidence of abuse’ to the route, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak still seemed intent on imposing restrictions. However, he eventually U-turned after pressure from cabinet colleagues.
Following the election in July, many were hoping Labour might reverse the ban on dependants, initially brought into play in January by the Conservatives. This ban caused significant declines in student recruitment, including an 80% drop from the Nigerian market. Unfortunately, the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the ban would remain in place.
In the wake of all these changes (and some stagnation), ‘policy’ is the word on everyone’s lips ahead of the New Year.
Commenting on ‘changing public sentiment’ towards immigration, ICEF said:
‘We need to tell a different story of the value and impact of international education―one that is measured not just in student numbers and GDP but that is also closely aligned to broader policy goals and public interests.’
This year, we have seen how foreign graduates are capable of creating great change, including the reduction of poverty in low- and middle-income countries. On the individual level, we have heard, first hand, how ELT can improve and support the lives of refugees, or those experiencing hardship.
Student mobility, however, may be starting to slow. Looking at the first half of 2024, market performance seems to have stagnated, and is unlikely to surpass levels seen in 2023, according to BONARD. In the UK, student weeks for the first quarter saw a 13% drop compared to 2023, while Canada saw a 10% drop in student numbers for the same period.
Meanwhile, BONARD predict the junior market will see further growth beyond 2024, as parents become more comfortable with sending their children abroad again, post-pandemic.
But, of course, we can’t talk about 2024 without talking about the continued advancement of AI, both a boon and a burden to teachers.
At the beginning of this year, we heard what teachers have to say about AI, with many admitting they use it on a weekly basis.
Teachers, on the whole, are not concerned by AI replacing them. However, they are concerned, as many are, with how AI can enable cheating and plagiarism. Others worry about how AI may widen the ‘digital divide’, some even saying students without access to the technology are at a disadvantage.
Speaking at the IP Exhibition, President of IATEFL Aleksandra Popovski spoke further about ‘AI literacy’ and how teachers and students can use AI effectively:
‘Why are we using AI tools? What is the purpose of AI in education? We are no longer dealing with traditional literacy, but also digital and multi-modal literacy.’
AI seems to be growing and developing exponentially, with many developers using the technology in learning tools, such as AI chatting software and lesson planning help. How AI may continue to help or hinder in 2025 is something perhaps worth looking forward to.
But until such a time comes, 2024 has provided valuable insight into how the world sees ELT and international education. It may well be time for the sector to learn from, and adapt, to the changing world around them, both politically and technologically. However, it is also important we make ourselves heard, and our presence known.
We do not know what the future may hold, but we certainly have the power to make it a good one.
